Introduction
The paper by Prof. Dr. Sebastian Blesse, Prof. Dr. Philipp Lergetporer, Clara Pache, and Dr. Helen Zeidler presents findings from a representative survey conducted in Germany between July and September 2025, which included around 1100 people aged 18 to 74. The survey focuses on public attitudes toward national security, defense policy, and external threats—particularly Russia’s military aggression. Against the backdrop of Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine and ongoing geopolitical instability, the study examines how Germans perceive current risks, which defense measures they support, and how they prefer to finance increased military spending. The results provide insights into a shifting public sentiment that increasingly values resilience, preparedness, and stronger European cooperation.
The Initial Situation
The initial context is deeply influenced by Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, which profoundly shifted security debates across Europe. Germany responded with its self-declared “Zeitenwende”, including a €100 billion special fund for the Bundeswehr and increased aid to Ukraine. Despite these steps, German defense structures remained under-resourced, fragmented, and inadequately prepared for potential threats. Observers raised concerns about insufficient production capacity, slow procurement processes, and Europe’s dependence on the U.S. for deterrence.
Simultaneously, public perception of risk changed substantially. Previous studies indicated growing fears of war and heightened threat awareness. Against this background, the authors conducted a representative survey to understand how Germans perceive the likelihood of future military conflict with Russia, how important they consider national resilience, and which concrete defense policies they support. The survey serves to map whether public sentiment aligns with political action and where additional societal backing for further reforms might exist.
The Findings
The survey uncovers several major trends in public opinion:
1. Concern about military conflict is widespread
A majority fears a Russian attack on NATO countries or Germany. Around 42% worry about a direct conflict involving Germany, and 40% fear personal impacts. This creates broad support for strengthening national resilience.
2. High value is placed on national defense capabilities
About 70% consider it important or very important that Germany becomes more resilient against external threats.
3. Concrete defense measures receive broad support
4. Strong pro‑European sentiment
Large majorities favor deeper European cooperation, especially in defense (67%), civil protection (66%), foreign policy (60%), and economic policy (58%).
5. Support for higher defense spending is high
70% think Germany should spend at least 3% of GDP on defense, exceeding previous NATO benchmarks.
6. Financing preferences prioritize budget shifts over new debt or taxes
Most Germans favor reallocating funds within the existing budget rather than increasing debt or raising taxes — 85% support allocating more money to internal security and public order.
The Potential Implications
The findings indicate a significant shift in public attitudes that could enable long-term changes in German security policy:
Conclusion
The study reveals a profound reorientation of German public opinion on security and defense. The population perceives Russia as a serious threat and supports both national and European measures to enhance resilience. Importantly, citizens not only approve abstract goals but also concrete policy steps—ranging from troop increases and civic service to deeper European cooperation. This broad societal backing indicates a durable shift in German strategic culture. For policymakers, these findings constitute a strong mandate to implement long-term reforms, strengthen alliances, and ensure sustainable financing mechanisms that reflect the public’s evolving priorities.
Read the full paper here (in German): https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/sd-2026-01-blesse-etal-umfrage-verteidigungspolitik.pdf
