Exports of agricultural products from tropical regions to China, the USA, the Middle East, and Europe are causing three times more biodiversity loss than was previously believed. Researchers from the Technical University of Munich (TUM) and ETH Zurich tracked the impact of agricultural exports on land use changes in producing countries from 1995 to 2022, revealing that Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico, and Madagascar are particularly affected by species loss.

Livia Cabernard, Professor of Sustainability Assessment of Food and Agricultural Systems  and Economics & Policy at TUM, and her colleagues Stephan Pfister and Stefanie Hellweg from ETH Zurich, found that international trade is responsible for more than 90 percent of biodiversity loss in tropical regions, which was largely due to the conversion of natural land into agricultural use. Previously, the role of trade was underestimated, with estimates suggesting it accounted for just 20 to 30 percent of biodiversity loss.

The team’s new model, which breaks down the global economy into sectors, regions, and ecological impacts, also used satellite data to track land use over time, even after farming had ceased. Unlike older models, this method took into account fallow areas and the time needed for ecosystems to recover, which had previously been overlooked. The study showed that over 80 percent of land use changes in regions like Latin America, Africa, Southeast Asia, and the Pacific were driven by increased agricultural exports. Major importers include China (26%), the USA (16%), the Middle East (13%), and Europe (8%).

Key hotspots of biodiversity loss due to land conversion are Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico, and Madagascar, which together account for more than half of the global species loss. In Brazil and Madagascar, land is primarily used for livestock grazing, while Indonesia focuses on rice and oilseeds such as palm oil, and Mexico grows vegetables, fruits, and nuts.

Outsourcing Species Loss: Global Consequences

For many importing countries, outsourcing agricultural production has appeared beneficial, with reduced domestic biodiversity impacts and increased conservation efforts. However, while biodiversity loss in countries like Brazil and Mexico has decreased due to domestic consumption shifts, overall biodiversity loss has increased due to rising agricultural exports. Livia Cabernard warns, "The threat to global biodiversity per square meter in tropical regions is a hundred times higher than in the importing countries."

This shift in understanding underscores the urgent need to reconsider the true environmental costs of global trade. Addressing biodiversity loss requires thinking on a global scale, implementing measures to support sustainable domestic agriculture, ensure transparent supply chains, and price agricultural products in ways that reflect their ecological impact. These steps are essential to reducing species loss in tropical hotspots.

To the paper: Cabernard, L., Pfister, S. & Hellweg, S.: Biodiversity impacts of recent land-use change driven by increases in agri-food imports. Nat Sustain 7 (2024). doi.org/10.1038/s41893-024-01433-4